Parallel session description

Session Conveners: Simon Thomas,  Stephanie Yardley,  Immanuel C. Jebaraj

Description: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large explosions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun. Once ejected, they propagate through the heliosphere becoming ‘Interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs)’. ICMEs are responsible for the most severe space weather hazards in the vicinity of Earth and can pose serious threats to our technologies on ground and in space. In addition to solar flares, shock waves from CMEs can produce solar energetic particles (SEPs), which are accelerated to very high energies at these sites and then transported through the solar wind. The fluxes of SEPs are considerably higher than the background galactic cosmic ray flux and are therefore considered radiation hazards to humans and technology in space or at high-altitude. A combination of CMEs and SEPs pose substantial amounts of threat if Earth-directed, affecting the power-grid, transport and pipelines through ground-induced currents, radar and global navigation systems, and radiation hazards to spacecraft and astronauts. Recently, efforts have been made to understand, model and forecast the transport of CMEs and SEPs through the heliosphere and the associated impacts when they arrive at Earth and other planets. These advances have been rapid since the launches of Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe, two new spacecraft which provide data from close to the Sun. Together with older multi-vantage point missions such as STEREO and the L1 spacecraft, understanding CME evolution, and SEP acceleration and propagation in the inner-heliosphere has taken a new turn. This session will provide an opportunity to share and discuss recent advances in both observations and modelling of these space weather events and their impacts, and to initiate collaborations between researchers and industry.

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Session Conveners: Eelco Doombos, Yaqi Jin, Lucilla Alfonsi

Description: The session focuses on the state-of-the-art understanding of the complex mechanisms ruling the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere (M-I-T) coupling and how they translate into space weather impacts. Such an understanding is fundamental for the development of effective countermeasures against disruption, failure and deterioration of vulnerable technologies, such as GNSS critical applications, HF/VHF/UHF radio communications and LEO satellites operations. In order to forecast, warn, and mitigate adverse space weather effects, a better understanding of the M-I-T coupling plays a key role. It is essential to improve the prediction of: geomagnetic storm-time behaviour of the occurrence of spread-F, polar cap patches and scintillation phenomena that can degrade navigation and communication systems, thermospheric density variability affecting satellite drag and the enhancement of field-aligned currents, just to mention a few examples. Another crucial aspect of M-I-T coupling is the interhemispheric symmetric/asymmetric response to variable drivers that, if properly predicted, could support regional space weather modelling. Contributed papers may address (but are not limited to) recent developments in modelling and forecasting, monitoring methodologies, data analysis, measurement campaigns and international initiatives related to M-I-T coupling and associated threats on systems, at regional and global scale.

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Session Conveners: Rico Behlke, Geoff Crowley, Thomas Berger

Description: The number of spacecraft being launched into orbit is increasing exponentially. As a result, the possible impacts of hazardous space weather become more important, and an improved quality of space weather forecasting and nowcasting services is of higher importance, as highlighted, for example, by the loss of Starlink spacecraft in February 2022 during a relatively minor geomagnetic storm. Space weather effects can manifest themselves in many ways depending on the spacecraft orbit. Examples include challenges with respect to collision avoidance or even uncontrolled reentry due to increased atmospheric drag, communication and navigation disruptions (and resulting flight control problems) between ground stations or GNSS sources and spacecraft due to ionospheric irregularities, and incidents related to charged particles (surface and internal charging, single event and total dose events). This session invites presentations from spacecraft developers, operators, and users, describing requirements and best practices that anticipate and/or mitigate mission risk with respect to space weather effects (both pre-mission and real-time). We also invite presentations from researchers and commercial developers describing new space weather specification and forecasting capabilities and services enabled by novel observations, instruments, or models and data exploitation techniques.

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Session Conveners: Joana Alves Ribeiro, Roberta Tozzi, Fernando Pinheiro

Description: Geomagnetic storms have been known to impact grounded conductors since the 19th century. However, as our reliance on technological systems grows, the economic consequences of geomagnetic induced currents (GICs) can be severe, as demonstrated by the March 1989 magnetic storm. Several groups are computing GICs for their respective national power networks to mitigate these effects. However, limitations on the information provided by power transmission operators and ground conductivity models can lead to errors in estimations. Additionally, GICs can have an impact on other types of grounded infrastructure, such as pipelines and railways, inducing corrosion and stray current interference, respectively. This session seeks to address the impact of GICs on grounded infrastructure, examine sources of uncertainty in GIC computation, and discuss potential mitigation strategies.

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Session Conveners: Guillerme Bernoux, Jorge Amaya, Christos Katsavrias

Description: Over the past decade, many studies have demonstrated that machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and more generally Artificial Intelligence (AI) have the potential to unlock new insights in space weather and space climate research. The goal of this session is to provide a platform for researchers and developers to present and discuss the latest breakthroughs in AI techniques for understanding, modelling, and predicting space weather and climate.

This session welcomes submissions on the use of ML/DL methods to model individual or multiple components of the Sun-Earth system. Problems to be addressed include: detection of solar structures, reconstruction of the solar and heliospheric topology, prediction of solar wind conditions at different locations, forecasting of energetic events multiple hours and days in advance, forecasting of the geomagnetic environment from information at L1 and from solar images, reconstruction of the current geomagnetic environment from ground and space-based observations, among others.

These models can be purely data-driven, but we also invite submissions that address the interaction of AI-based methods with traditional physical methods. This includes the use of ML/DL methods to accelerate and/or improve the accuracy of physical models, as well as the chaining of models of different nature and the quantification of uncertainty within complex pipelines. Submissions on methods that allow explicit inclusion of prior physical knowledge (such as so-called physics-informed or physics-aware methods) are strongly encouraged.

With ML/DL methods it also becomes possible to leverage vast amounts of data gathered over several solar cycles. Submissions on the creation and provision of large datasets, especially « ML-ready » ones, would be appreciated, as well as presentations on AI methods to refine and augment datasets (e.g. automatic calibration, cleaning, projection, etc.). Since it is difficult to label large datasets by hand, we also invite submissions on automating tasks such as detecting, segmenting and labelling solar regions or events of interest.

Last but not least, the community is already moving towards the implementation of ML/AI models into operation space weather services. In this perspective, validation of ML/AI results is critical. The results produced by these techniques must be validated against existing benchmarks and should be as explainable as possible. In short, they must demonstrate that they are trustworthy. We therefore support the submission of abstracts on the use of explainable AI for space weather and climate forecasting and, more generally, submissions on how to reliably and rigorously validate AI-based models.

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Session Conveners: Stephan G. Heinemann, Eleanna Asvestari

Description: The heliospheric solar wind structure, that is formed by the interaction of slow and fast wind, is the primary cause of minor to moderate geomagnetic activity and provides the medium in which other solar transients propagate. Stream interaction and co-rotating interaction regions produce shocks, compression, and rarefaction regions that are well known sources of recurrent geomagnetic effects on Earth. Therefore, understanding the heliospheric solar wind, ambient magnetic field, and their sources are vital in validating and refining space weather forecasting efforts. The aim of this session is to address the origin, evolution and space weather effects of fast and slow solar wind through the means of observations and models. Newly launched missions including Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter (SolO), as well as, established missions such as the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatories (STEREOs) provide a multitude of information that may be used to validate, improve, and refine current knowledge in this field. We encourage submissions regarding solar wind sources, both for slow and fast wind, solar wind acceleration/outflow, stream interaction, and the structure of the magnetic field and plasma topology at the source surface and the inner heliosphere. We welcome research that combines observations and models to further the understanding of solar and heliospheric physics in the framework of space weather.

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Session Conveners: Martin Reiss, Barbara Perri, Evangelia Samara

Description: Assessing the current state-of-the-art in space weather modelling is pivotal for driving progress in space weather research and awareness. However, the rate at which we develop and improve our current modelling assets has greatly outpaced the rate at which we develop our validation infrastructure. This session seeks to reverse this trend by inviting contributions on (1) recent advances in validation and performance assessment of space weather models, (2) the development of new validation metrics and procedures, (3) the usage of multi-spacecraft observations from current space explorers for model validation, (4) the role of data science methods in model validation, and (5) community-coordinated validation efforts for model assessment. By tying the expertise on model validation in space weather research together, this session aims to identify opportunities for future advancements.

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Session Conveners: Antoine Brunet, Constantinos Papadimitriou, Rungployphan Kieokaew

Description: Accurate forecasting and modelling of space weather events are crucial for mitigating their impacts on critical infrastructure, including communication systems, power grids, and navigation systems. However, these predictions are subject to uncertainty arising from both the data used to model the space weather system and the models themselves. Addressing these uncertainties is crucial to build a better understanding of the complex near-Earth space environment, provide more accurate forecasts, and identify shortcomings in the available data and models for space weather. The field of uncertainty quantification provides tools to characterise the sources of uncertainty and their impacts on a system. It involves a range of statistical and mathematical techniques, including probabilistic modelling, sensitivity analysis and reliability analysis. In our scientific community, these tools have been applied on physical modelling pipelines, empirical and data-driven models, as well as data assimilation models. This session focuses on uncertainty quantification in space weather modelling and data analysis. We invite contributions that address the challenges of quantifying and managing uncertainties in space weather and space climate, including: – Assessment and validation of uncertainty estimates in models and data – Estimations of spatial and temporal uncertainty correlations, as well as correlations between uncertainties in different physical processes – Uncertainty propagation in data assimilation and numerical simulation pipelines – Sensitivity analysis for space weather and space climate applications – Reliability analysis for space weather effects modelling Finally, contributions on how to leverage uncertainty estimates to build innovative space weather products and services would be very much appreciated.

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Session Conveners: Aurélie Marchaudon, Lasse Clausen, Beatriz Sanchez-Cano

Description: Multi-point measurements in space are more and more required in the study of the Sun-Earth relations and their applications in the framework of Space Weather, either to ensure a better discrimination of the spatial and temporal effects as it is the case for example of satellite swarms or joint satellite-rocket measurements or to ensure a better spatio-temporal coverage of a specific study region with in particular satellite constellations. At the two extremes of the spectrum, we find purely scientific missions such as ESA-Cluster, ESA-Swarm, NASA-Themis, NASA-MMS or the future NASA-HelioSwarm and NASA-GDC missions and commercial constellations for which some data used to ensure the attitude of the satellites have been diverted to scientific uses (determination of the Earth’s parallel currents from magnetometers on board the IRIDIUM constellation: AMPERE project). With the emergence of New Space, including the rise of nanosatellites, it becomes possible to consider new multi-point projects to improve the space-time coverage of the Sun-Earth system, in particular, but not only, for the near-Earth environment (radiation belts, ionosphere-thermosphere) and to allow a more global description and a better assimilation of the associated data in the forecasting models of these regions. In this session, we call for all contributions presenting original space projects using multi-point (satellites, cubesat, rockets, and why not balloons or a combination of these different devices), with possible applications for Space Weather.

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Session Conveners: Alexander Mishev, Florian Mekhaldi, Natalie Krivova

Description: Space Weather studies and tools rely on modern observations of geomagnetic effects of solar activity. These observations might, however, not cover the entire possible range of such events. We know, for example, that extreme events, several orders of magnitude stronger than everything we have observed directly during the last 80 years, can occur on the Sun on centennial and millennial time scales. These include extreme solar flares and related particle storms, as well as the accompanying enormous geomagnetic disturbances. The consequences of such extreme events can be dramatic for the modern technological society, yet they cannot be quantified based upon the existing experience based on direct measurements. Also extended periods of extreme solar activity in general, such as grand minima and maxima, need to be better understood. Although extreme events are studied using indirect proxy data, such measurements are quite robust because of the enormous strength of the events. The session will focus on extreme solar activity periods (such as grand maxima and minima) and extreme solar events, as well as their application to modern Space Weather problems, viz. in the context of their parameters, physical origin and consequences. We welcome studies related to long-term changes in solar activity, the exceptionally strong events in the past, the most violent events of the recent solar cycles, as well as studies of superflares on Sun-like stars. Comparisons of recent models with experimental results are also very welcome. The aim of the session is to stimulate research and discussion allowing assessment of new observational and theoretical constraints for practical Space Weather studies.

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Session Conveners: Marco Molinaro, Veronique Delouille, Baptiste Cecconi

Description: The wealth of Space Weather data has grown exponentially in the last two decades, both in terms of volumes and diversity. Data are heterogeneous under many aspects, including: acquisition (instrument observation), exploitation (for various scientific research fields or for operational aspects), and format. Data are made e-accessible through portals. Metadata (often produced from automated feature recognition code) as well as data analysis and simulation codes are made available from various repositories. The heterogeneity and increased volume in data requires however to think about how to better homogenise the various aspects of the data infrastructures, in order to provide the users with solutions that follow FAIR principles and leverage on open standards development. In this effort, connection to global communities and organisations (IHDEA, COSPAR-ISWAT, IPDA, IVOA-SSIG) and scientific-to-operational infrastructure bridging (ESA SSA-SWE) are keys in showing the current status of these activities and helping to identify common ways forward. This session proposes to bring together expertise in Space Weather, solar, heliospheric and planetary science data management and data exploitation and make an inventory of elements of space weather data infrastructure. We welcome contributions describing ongoing and foreseen activities in producing high level metadata via automated feature recognition catalogues, and in homogenising and standardising Space Weather resource discovery, access and use towards a FAIR interoperable approach.

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Session Conveners: K.D. Leka, Kathryn Whitman, Sophie Murray

Description: Flare forecasting research has been invoking big data (in some cases covering multiple solar cycles), multiple wavelength and physical regimes (beyond white-light imaging and photospheric magnetic field maps), and many new machine learning approaches.  Have we achieved serious breakthroughs?  Are new methods, including machine learning, improving the forecast performance?  How do we know?  Where are the gaps?  What is needed to move forward: Tools, Data, Methodologies?  This session will consist of a single « state of the science » review talk and an invitation for anyone in the community to present 2-4 slide « lightning talks » addressing the « Breakthroughs » and « Identifying the Gaps » questions, with associated time for discussion.  More detailed presentations of new methods and research will be available by way of associated posters.

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Session Conveners: Tamal Basak, Carine Briand, Nina Aleksandra

Description:  The session focuses on the recent developments in the theoretical understanding and instrumentation regarding ground-based ionospheric monitoring to the investigation of the middle and lower ionosphere. The theoretical understanding encompasses advanced numerical modelling during ionospheric perturbations. It includes the ionospheric perturbations due to solar flares, gamma ray events, solar eclipse, seismic activities etc. Chemical dynamics of the lower ionosphere and its consequences are also included. The instrumentation theme covers the aspects starting from the hardware related development to computational facilities in comprehensive ionospheric monitoring through networking /campaigns and best practices in data handling. A specific discussion on Very Low Frequency (VLF) /Low Frequency (LF) instruments and networks is expected. The data analysis consists of the analysis of the ionospheric data monitored through ground based stations, namely, LF / VLF signal, GPS based Total Electron Content (TEC), ionic constituents etc. Application of the machine learning for simulating the perturbed ionospheric conditions is also included in this section.

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